Apologies for having not written for some time. It’s been busy – lots of things going on, foremost being that I have recently changed jobs. I am no longer working for Messr Rendell, but am now doing economic development work for a quasi-public agency that answers to Messr Corzine.
Anyway, the economy continues to be in the news a bit lately, eh? What an understatement: you know it’s news when you’re checking your bank’s press page (I use Wachovia) periodically over the course of the day trying to figure out to whom they are being sold. Still kind of in the dark here, guys.
Clearly, we’re going through some economic travails of enormous proportions. That said, I am have the darndest time trying to figger at just how extensive and bad things are moving towards. There are many reasons to be confused; first – what’s with Congress’s super-secrecy regarding economic indicators and thus the abosolute metaphysical necessity for the bailout bill? Whatever Bernanke and Paulson said to Congress apparently had some kind of crazy, fall-on-your-knees-and-pray kind of effect on Congressional leadership and El Presidente Bush.
And yet, the original House bailout bill failed to pass.
Um, okay? So does that somehow absolve the rest of us from backing Paulson’s magical $700 billion bailout? Even more interestingly – the markets rallied like hell. Weird, right?
So, of course, after the markets rally and the dollar strengthens big, all it takes are some pretty hefty energy pork amendments (?!?) to bribe just enough of those holdouts to approve the bailout, which El Presidente signs – visibly relieved. And then, of course, the markets tank. As the Drudge Report headline so sensationally heralds: Goodbye, 10,000.
You think that’s strange? Try adding the fact that despite the supposedly exceptional ill-health of the economy, services and exports actually expanded. Yup – and apparently the dollar is doings reps she hasn’t been able to pull for years. Oh yeah, and oil is below $90.
If you’re asking “whisky, tango, foxtrot?!” then you aren’t alone. It’s really hard to say what all this supposedly conflicting information actually means, but the unimaginable complexity of the global economy and financial system may have brought us to a point where the crest-trough flux of the business cycle no longer quite adequately applies. This may be a premature declaration – I’m honestly too confused to be able to say for sure, but most of us are – but I guess it’s about as good a guess as many will find in a situation where government transparency has been at a decided premium. Ironically, this same government is leading the charge to impose more a weighty regulatory regime on the economy to protect against obfuscation.
Funny, right?
